The U.S. Army’s predictive insight system uses RFID technology and biosensors to complete observations
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In the era of network-centric warfare, precise military operations, flexible ground forces, unprecedented surveillance capabilities, and real-time communications capabilities are combined to connect various forces in the distance. A new technology-based method can fuse all kinds of available data, allowing commanders and logistics support personnel to predict results mathematically.
Military commanders who hope to gain battlefield advantage, break the balance of power, and make the situation develop rapidly in a favorable direction will soon benefit from the application of a promising new technology. The name of the new technology application is “predictive insight,” which not only has the ability to turn the complete concept of battlefield space situational awareness into reality, but also takes this concept forward a big step forward.
The controller of the air traffic control center of the USS George Washington is monitoring the take-off and landing of the aircraft
Predictive insights may provide a 360-degree image beyond all current combat conditions. The information it provides helps military leaders more accurately predict what will develop on the battlefield, thereby gaining a huge advantage against the enemy and ultimately winning.
The combat environment of military personnel is always full of various uncertainties. They must quickly determine whether the car rushing to the checkpoint is a suicide car or a car driven by a civilian who is eager to take his wife who is about to give birth to the hospital. They must predict where the next attack on the military outpost might come from. Military personnel often need to make instant decisions in the face of countless unknown factors.
Predictive insight is designed to better deal with these uncertainties. This method takes advantage of existing technical capabilities and makes better use of these technical capabilities.
Defense organizations already have countless data sources: corporate data, transaction data, and real-time detailed data such as weather information and sensor information. The information sources needed to make the best decisions now exist. Similarly, in terms of processing power and processing speed, the capabilities of today’s systems have been able to process massive amounts of data in real time.
The use of predictive insights allows military commanders to use the capabilities of existing infrastructure to analyze various data to make extremely accurate predictions of events. Although predictive insights may not give a definite answer, they will certainly tilt the balance to the user’s advantage. Possessing the ability to model realistic scenarios of multiple current variables means that it is possible to better predict the possible impact of enemy actions and various actions. The commander may even discover possible results that have not been considered before.
The predictive insight loop can be seen as the next generation of the observation, judgment, decision, and action (OODA) loop familiar to the military, using analysis to accelerate execution. At the beginning of the process, it is necessary to integrate the observations of the physical world, such as observations done using radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and biological sensors, as well as data on military assets such as vehicles and weapon system units. Although this information is usually available throughout the operation, it rarely appears in a centralized space. Information is scattered in various units/locations and buried in a “chimney” system, limiting the direct application of information. Information accumulation is the critical first step.
Once the information is assembled, the commander can begin to run the micro and macro scenarios to determine what response should be made. For example, a model based on a variety of sensor data can predict the operations that each machine will perform at a certain time, a certain place, and under certain weather conditions tomorrow. However, users do not need to make an educated prediction based on the general threshold of a certain type of asset, but can provide a personalized model of a specific asset by this prediction method.
This is very different from traditional methods. Just like automated production machinery, every part produced on an assembly line is the same. But the machine will have an accident. They form their own history based on the application situation over a period of time. Give a new car to a young man who has just obtained his driver’s license, and give the next car produced on the assembly line to a person who doesn’t drive very often. After a year, the conditions of the two cars will be very different. Similarly, there will be a big difference between a troop carrier operating in a desert area and a troop carrier operating in a cool area.
The information of predictive insight helps to formulate the most appropriate response in a given environment. Its influence starts from basic expenses. Predictive insights allow maintenance to be carried out when necessary, rather than according to a predetermined schedule, thereby optimizing the time between routine maintenance.
Another benefit is the ability to reduce unplanned downtime. Users can be aware of impending failures, order spare parts in advance and make maintenance arrangements. This concept has been verified in practice in non-defense fields. The City of St. Louis uses predictive insights to enhance the management of city buses, shorten the time when cars are out of service, and greatly reduce the cost of car maintenance.
Predictive insights can also help consolidate performance-based logistics support capabilities. At present, the total cost of the engine is not its initial cost, but the cost plus long-term maintenance and repair costs. In the not-too-distant future, after purchasing an engine, it will not continue to pay for the purchase of spare parts and maintenance costs over the entire life cycle of the engine. Military units will be able to “purchase power on time.” What the army buys is performance, and what it buys is start-up time. The most similar analogy is the way that a civilian mobile phone pays for the number of minutes of the call. By operating the hardware, the service fee paid by the military will be minimized. When more services are needed, just pay more.
By adopting this method, the military can eliminate the risks associated with maintaining an aging vehicle/fleet. At the same time, this concept will also encourage manufacturers to improve product optimization to a new level. Since manufacturers do not want to have too much inventory, they need to understand the specific conditions of specific equipment at a given moment and predict when a failure occurs. Manufacturers will build predictive insights into their machinery from the beginning.
The model assumes that a close cooperative relationship has been established with the private sector, and information sharing has reached a whole new level. Vendors need more information to provide support for the battle plan. For example, if a manufacturer achieves a service level of 100 hours per month for three consecutive months, but needs to provide 120 hours of training exercises next month, the manufacturer needs to be prepared for this. The military procurement department needs to provide information for the image so that the predictive model can work, and ultimately the cost of both parties is reduced.
In addition to combat-level equipment and machinery, predictive insights can also help decision makers formulate mission plans, predict the best combination of skills in different scenarios, make adjustments to the enemy’s possible response, and even review alternative target operation plans. When military commanders have more possible scenarios and corresponding action choices, they can make the best action decisions.
The predictive insight system gives danger signals, enabling the commander to eliminate the danger in the bud. The last thing military leaders want to see is problems in the course of major operations, because if they invest too much, they will cause great losses if they fail. For example, it is far better to withdraw the troubled personnel carrier in advance for maintenance than to let the personnel carrier break on the road. However, in accordance with the traditional maintenance model, mechanics rarely foresee a problem with the vehicle. If there is no predictive insight, taking action in advance will be costly and blind action.
The potential of predictive insights extends from mechanical maintenance to more strategic and macroscopic decision-making, helping commanders to develop troop deployment plans, such as using radio frequency identification and global positioning system technologies to determine the best logistics support operations to prevent supply chain disruptions And respond.
If the military wants to take full advantage of predictive insights, not only must it have available information, but it also needs to be able to respond to it. The first half of the equation has been established. Achieving predictive insights will not require huge investments in infrastructure development. Existing technologies already have the ability to collect the required information, and only need to spend very little investment to make improvements. So there is no shortage of available information. The data needed to achieve predictive insights already exists and is being collected in some way. The military only needs to determine whether it is worth the time to fuse the data.
Another ability that needs to be possessed is the ability to analyze data and express the results of the analysis in an appropriate format so that it can be used as information in action. The most important thing is that an organization must have the appropriate creativity and flexibility, and must be able to get rid of the constraints of conventions. When predictive insights clearly give the best response method, the relevant person in charge should not stick to the old way of doing things. Don’t dare to take action.
Outstanding combat troops will defeat the enemy. Predictive insights provide valuable advantages in this regard: they are ahead of the enemy and reality and seize opportunities; in the end, predictive insights will provide a 360-degree predictive system for command and control operations and completely change the face of warfare.
About the author: Retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Jack Woodward is a senior executive officer of Accenture. Ryan-E-LaSalle is an information technology fusion and advanced technology expert at Accenture Technology Lab.
Source: Signal Magazine
Author: U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Jack Woodward (retired)), Ryan-M-LaSalle
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